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ZA · South Africa · –

Bushbuckridge fire, 3 July 2025 Bushbuckridge

Out · last detection 5 Jul 2025, 11:47 UTC

The fire started on 3 July 2025 in Bushbuckridge, South Africa, and satellites saw it burning for 5 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 5,424 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 22th largest in Mpumalanga since 2016 (of 182 with a page). Number 3 in South Africa in 2025, of 14.

Burnt area
5,424ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
5days
3 Jul 2025 – 7 Jul 2025
Municipalities hit
1
municipalities
Started on
3 Jul
2025
Heat detections
198
in a single hotspot: 93 MW
Danger at start
30
High · FWI index
Average daily power
869MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 3 Jul7 Jul
5 Jul 2025

How it evolved, day by day

3 Jul 2025 · 2,413 MW · 151 4 Jul 2025 · 190 MW · 46 5 Jul 2025 · 4 MW · 1
3 Jul 4 Jul 5 Jul

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

30°high
55km/h · peak gust
7%lowest humidity

It had gone more than two months without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

80% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 4,361 ha in 2021.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 3.4% of the area of London (54 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Bushbuckridge where it started
    5,440 ha reached on 3 Jul
    0.5 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2025
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Started with 60 days without rain: 10.0 % of the area in South Africa

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
3 Jul 27.3 °C 29 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm High 30
4 Jul 29.6 °C 12 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 47
5 Jul 27.5 °C 10 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 42
6 Jul 30.4 °C 7 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
7 Jul 22.4 °C 25 % 55 km/h 0.1 mm Extreme 54
8 Jul after 21.7 °C 41 % 37 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
9 Jul after 23.1 °C 33 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm High 25
10 Jul after 25.6 °C 25 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm High 30
11 Jul after 27.5 °C 17 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
12 Jul after 25.7 °C 20 % 53 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 51
13 Jul after 24.1 °C 43 % 35 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
14 Jul after 28.0 °C 24 % 34 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
15 Jul after 28.7 °C 22 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
16 Jul after 28.7 °C 24 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
17 Jul after 27.3 °C 24 % 33 km/h 0.0 mm High 37

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 29.6, a minimum humidity of 29% and more than two months without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 37.

FWI at the start 29.6
Minimum humidity 29 %
Days without rain 60+
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Ba-Phalaborwa fire, September 2022
4,697 ha 5 days FWI 26.1 Min. humidity 29 % 73 km away, in 2022

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 3.9 mm on 20 Sept.

What happened to them

4 days
median duration
3,340 ha
median area
11 %
went past 10,000 ha
1.5 mm
rain at the end (median; 19 of 37 had it)

It was 1.6 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 5 days, against 4 days.

Only 11 of its 37 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 18 of 37, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.5 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
55km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 7 Jul, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 19 of 37, with a median of 1.5 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 26 Jun 2025
After · 14 Jul 2025

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 6 July 2025 the air beside the fire reached 67 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 40: 2.7 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak67 µg/m³
Days over the guideline2 days
PM1068 µg/m³
Optical depth0.38
1 Jul3 Jul5 Jul7 Jul
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 198Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in South Africa

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Bushbuckridge fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 3 July 2025 to 7 July 2025 (5 days). The perimeter dates it from 3 July 2025 to 4 July 2025.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 5,424 hectares (54.2 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Bushbuckridge (5,440 ha, 0.5 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 30.4 °C, humidity dropped to 7 % and gusts hit 55 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 54, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of South Africa (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 37. Their median duration was 4 days and their median area 3,340 ha; 11 % went past 10,000 ha. Only 11 of its 37 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 18 of 37, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.5 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Emergency number: 10177 · 112 · Emergency number and official warnings

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 4 July 2025 → 7 July 2025.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 10177 · 112.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 3 July 2025 to 4 July 2025. 198 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM3 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.