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ZA · South Africa · –

Bushbuckridge fire, 10 September 2023 Bushbuckridge

Out · last detection 10 Sept 2023, 23:27 UTC

The fire started on 10 September 2023 in Bushbuckridge, South Africa, and satellites saw it burning for 2 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 2,238 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 148th largest in Mpumalanga since 2016 (of 182 with a page). Number 124 in South Africa in 2023, of 150.

Burnt area
2,238ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
2days
10 Sept 2023 – 11 Sept 2023
Municipalities hit
1
municipalities
Started on
10 Sept
2023
Heat detections
85
in a single hotspot: 124 MW
Danger at start
40
Very high · FWI index
Average daily power
2.4GW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 10 Sept11 Sept

How it evolved, day by day

10 Sept 2023 · 2,447 MW · 85

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

38°high
60km/h · peak gust
16%lowest humidity

It had gone 30 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started. Rain came after the fire: 1.2 mm on 17 Sept.

This area had burned before

53% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 652 ha in 2017, 7 ha in 2020, 811 ha in 2022. Part of it burned more than once, so the yearly figures add up to more than the 1,189 ha that had burned before.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 1.4% of the area of London (22 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Bushbuckridge where it started
    2,253 ha reached on 10 Sept
    0.2 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2025
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
10 Sept 35.3 °C 25 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
11 Sept 37.6 °C 16 % 60 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 67
12 Sept after 17.8 °C 45 % 61 km/h 0.3 mm Very high 40
13 Sept after 20.4 °C 53 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm High 23
14 Sept after 29.9 °C 29 % 46 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
15 Sept after 37.3 °C 12 % 44 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 58
16 Sept after 38.9 °C 12 % 53 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 62
17 Sept after 21.8 °C 58 % 46 km/h 1.2 mm Moderate 18

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 39.7, a minimum humidity of 25% and 30 days without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 23.

FWI at the start 39.7
Minimum humidity 25 %
Days without rain 30
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Chicualacuala fire, October 2024
3,573 ha 6 days FWI 39.4 Min. humidity 25 % 161 km away, in 2024

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 3.9 mm on 23 Oct.

What happened to them

5 days
median duration
3,420 ha
median area
0 %
went past 10,000 ha
2.6 mm
rain at the end (median; 15 of 23 had it)

It stayed below its twins: 2,238 ha against a median of 3,420 ha. It lasted 2 days, against 5 days.

In 8 of 23, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.6 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

1.2 mmfirst rain
17 Sept6 days after it ended
60km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 11 Sept, and on 17 Sept 1.2 mm fell. We do not know whether the rain or the firefighters put it out. Twins with rain when they ended: 15 of 23, with a median of 2.6 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 3 Sept 2023
After · 18 Sept 2023

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 13 September 2023 the air beside the fire reached 30 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 18: 1.2 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak30 µg/m³
Days over the guideline1 day
PM1046 µg/m³
Optical depth0.68
8 Sept10 Sept12 Sept
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 85Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in South Africa

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Bushbuckridge fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 10 September 2023 to 11 September 2023 (2 days). The perimeter dates it from 10 September 2023 to 10 September 2023.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 2,238 hectares (22.4 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Bushbuckridge (2,253 ha, 0.2 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 37.6 °C, humidity dropped to 16 % and gusts hit 60 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 67, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of South Africa (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 23. Their median duration was 5 days and their median area 3,420 ha; 0 % went past 10,000 ha. In 8 of 23, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 2.6 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Emergency number: 10177 · 112 · Emergency number and official warnings

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 10 September 2023 → 11 September 2023.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 10177 · 112.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 10 September 2023 to 10 September 2023. 85 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM3 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.