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ZA · South Africa · –

Ba-Phalaborwa fire, 23 September 2022 Ba-Phalaborwa

Out · last detection 3 Oct 2022, 10:45 UTC

The fire started on 23 September 2022 in Ba-Phalaborwa, South Africa, and satellites saw it burning for 12 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 4,484 hectares from heat detections, spread across a single municipality.

It is the 41th largest in Limpopo since 2016 (of 161 with a page). Number 38 in South Africa in 2022, of 143.

Burnt area
4,484ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
12days
23 Sept 2022 – 4 Oct 2022
Municipalities hit
1
municipalities
Started on
23 Sept
2022
Heat detections
146
in a single hotspot: 38 MW
Danger at start
11
Moderate · FWI index
Average daily power
277MW
detected power per day, on average

Where it burned

HOTSPOTS BY DAY 23 Sept4 Oct
3 Oct 2022

How it evolved, day by day

23 Sept 2022 · 1 MW · 1 25 Sept 2022 · 470 MW · 53 26 Sept 2022 · 170 MW · 22 27 Sept 2022 · 742 MW · 69 3 Oct 2022 · 4 MW · 1
23 Sept 25 Sept 26 Sept 27 Sept 3 Oct

Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

The weather it burned in

38°high
52km/h · peak gust
15%lowest humidity

It had gone 0 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

This area had burned before

No earlier perimeters overlap this fire since 2016, when the satellite record begins.

How big is it?

10 km
It burned the equivalent of 2.8% of the area of London (45 km² against 1,583 km²).

London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

What happened to each town

  1. Ba-Phalaborwa where it started
    4,509 ha reached on 23 Sept
    0.6 %

Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

People and buildings inside the perimeter

GHSL 2020
Built-up area< 0.1 ha
Residents< 20

Inside the perimeter there was no noticeable built-up land and almost nobody lived there (GHSL 2020, satellite-based estimate).

This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned.

Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

The weather day by day

ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
23 Sept 32.7 °C 37 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 11
24 Sept 30.4 °C 42 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Moderate 20
25 Sept 35.7 °C 16 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm High 33
26 Sept 36.8 °C 15 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
27 Sept 34.9 °C 28 % 43 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
28 Sept 31.3 °C 30 % 41 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
29 Sept 29.2 °C 32 % 36 km/h 0.4 mm High 34
30 Sept 32.9 °C 25 % 25 km/h 0.0 mm High 28
1 Oct 34.9 °C 20 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
2 Oct 33.6 °C 29 % 40 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
3 Oct 37.9 °C 21 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
4 Oct 37.2 °C 25 % 52 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 54
5 Oct after 31.6 °C 35 % 36 km/h 0.4 mm High 36
6 Oct after 38.6 °C 16 % 36 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 44
7 Oct after 37.8 °C 21 % 58 km/h 0.0 mm Extreme 64
8 Oct after 31.0 °C 34 % 50 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
9 Oct after 40.1 °C 12 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 46
10 Oct after 31.0 °C 41 % 56 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 43
11 Oct after 32.2 °C 38 % 26 km/h 0.2 mm High 30
12 Oct after 36.5 °C 24 % 27 km/h 0.0 mm High 35
13 Oct after 36.5 °C 25 % 26 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
14 Oct after 37.9 °C 24 % 24 km/h 0.0 mm High 37

Its twins: fires that started in the same weather

It started with an FWI of 11.4, a minimum humidity of 37% and rain the day before. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 30.

FWI at the start 11.4
Minimum humidity 37 %
Days without rain 0
this fire chosen twins rest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar

Outlines of the closest twins

Thaba Chweu fire, August 2023
2,430 ha 4 days FWI 8.5 Min. humidity 38 % 153 km away, in 2023

First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: none in the following ten days.

What happened to them

5 days
median duration
2,490 ha
median area
100 %
went past 1,000 ha
1.7 mm
rain at the end (median; 22 of 30 had it)

It was 1.8 times larger than the median of its twins and lasted 12 days, against 5 days.

Only 7 of its 30 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 8 of 30, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.7 mm.

This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it

How it ended

—first rain
—no rain in ten days
52km/h · max. gust

It was considered over on 4 Oct, and not even 1 mm fell in the following ten days: it went out without rain. Twins with rain when they ended: 22 of 30, with a median of 1.7 mm.

Weather on this page: Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Climate Change Service (ERA5)

How a twin is chosen

  • Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
  • Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
  • Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
  • Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
  • They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.

How we calculate it

Before and after, from space

Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

Before · 16 Sept 2022
After · 11 Oct 2022

If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

The smoke

CAMS · Copernicus

On 26 September 2022 the air beside the fire reached 32 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 19: 1.3 times the WHO daily guideline (15).

PM2.5 peak32 µg/m³
Days over the guideline4 days
PM1046 µg/m³
Optical depth1.09
21 Sept23 Sept25 Sept27 Sept29 Sept
Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

Detections table · 146Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

Other fires nearby

All fires in South Africa

Frequently asked questions

How long did the Ba-Phalaborwa fire last?
According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 23 September 2022 to 4 October 2022 (12 days). The perimeter dates it from 23 September 2022 to 27 September 2022.
How much area did it burn?
The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 4,484 hectares (44.8 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
Which municipalities burned?
The fire only entered Ba-Phalaborwa (4,509 ha, 0.6 %).
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 37.9 °C, humidity dropped to 15 % and gusts hit 52 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 54, class Extreme.
Where does this data come from?
From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of South Africa (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.
How did the fires that started in similar weather in this area end?
Fires less than 250 km away that started since 2016 with a similar FWI, humidity and dry spell: 30. Their median duration was 5 days and their median area 2,490 ha; 100 % went past 1,000 ha. Only 7 of its 30 twins burned more. The weather on the first day does not explain everything: the wind in the following days, the fuel and the firefighting also count. In 8 of 30, not even 1 mm fell in the ten days after the end: they went out without rain. In the rest, the first rainy day brought a median of 1.7 mm.

Where to verify it

A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

Emergency number: 10177 · 112 · Emergency number and official warnings

Satellite cross-check

History of this page · 1 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
  1. Last day with fire: 27 September 2022 → 4 October 2022.

RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

Does something look wrong on this page?

This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

Report an error
What do you think is wrong?

We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 10177 · 112.

How we know this
  • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery.
  • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 23 September 2022 to 27 September 2022. 146 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
  • We have not matched this page with any official record.
  • Weather: Copernicus ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, in cells of about 25 km.
  • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2020, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

How we build fire pages: methodology

Where this data comes from

The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM3 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.