Assumption fire, November 2026
Assumption, Ascension
Dying down · last detection 13 Nov 2026, 18:55 UTC
Satellites first detected fire on 4 November 2026 in Assumption, United States. It has been active for 10 days, with 63 heat detections and an area with fire of about 812 hectares rebuilt from them, spread across 2 counties.
matches the official recordwith caveatssatellite onlymodel
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Burned area
satellite only
≈ 812ha
Estimated from hotspots: no perimeter has been published yet.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
4 Nov 2026 – 13 Nov 2026
+− cross-check
This is an estimate from the VIIRS pixels that saw fire. It will change when the perimeter is published.
Duration by satellite
satellite only
10days
From 4 Nov 2026 to today: still being detected.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
last detection: 13 Nov 2026, 18:55 UTC
+− cross-check
Satellites pass a few times a day and cloud or smoke can hide the fire: a lack of detections is not an official extinction. Each country’s emergency service declares a fire contained or out.
Start
satellite only
4 Nov 2026
First day with fire seen by the satellites or the perimeter.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS
Date
4 Nov 2026
+− cross-check
No official record is matched to this page, so the alert time and the cause are not known here.
Hotspots
satellite only
63
VIIRS detections at 375 m. Most intense hotspot: 67 MW.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (NOAA-20)
Date
4 Nov 2026 – 13 Nov 2026
+− cross-check
There is no official record to compare with. Each hotspot is a pixel detected in one satellite pass, not a separate fire.
The worst day
satellite only
208MW
Total radiative power on 12 November 2026; hotspots that day: 14.
Source
NASA FIRMS · VIIRS (FRP)
Date
12 Nov 2026
+− cross-check
Fire radiative power (FRP) measures the energy the fire gives off when the satellite passes. Added up by day, it compares intensity, not area.
Danger at the start
model
6.3FWI · low
Fire Weather Index (Canadian system) computed by WorldFires for the day the fire started. Consecutive days without rain before: 1.
Source
WorldFires calculation (Canadian FWI system)
Date
4 Nov 2026, local noon
Model
ECMWF IFS 0,25° · Open-Meteo.com · provisional
+− cross-check
This is an index computed from weather model data, not a measurement of the fire nor an official warning. Danger warnings are issued by each country’s authority. Emergency number and official warnings ›
Weather during the fire
model
26.9°C · 56% RH
High of 26.9 °C and minimum humidity of 56% on 4 November 2026; gusts of 34 km/h on 12 November 2026.
Source
weather model at the fire’s grid cell
Date
4 Nov 2026 – 13 Nov 2026
Model
ECMWF IFS 0,25° · Open-Meteo.com · provisional
+− cross-check
These are model values for a cell of about 25 km, not from a weather station: they may differ from what was measured on the ground.
ⓘThis page’s change log has been kept since 24 October 2026: every night what it publishes is compared and the difference is logged. Anything earlier is reconstructed from each source’s date and marked as reconstructed.
Show
log
Area: ≈ 406 → ≈ 798 ha.
log
Start date: 21 October 2026 → 3 November 2026.
log
Name: Lafourche → Assumption.
log
The page “Ascension, 3 November 2026” has been merged into this one: it was the same fire.
· reconstructedweather
Weather and FWI computed from the forecast (provisional until ERA5 arrives)
log
Last day with fire: 7 November 2026 → 8 November 2026.
log
Page published (≈ 434 ha).
log
Last day with fire: 23 October 2026 → 29 October 2026.
A version keeps the area, dates, name and official record; the area as it was logged (changes under 2% are not logged). The map, hotspots and weather always show today’s data.
Citation
A lede of about 60 words figures only, no adjectives
NIFC has not yet published the perimeter of this fire. For now the area is the one rebuilt from heat detections (about 14 hectares per pixel). When the perimeter arrives, this page picks it up on its own and keeps the same address.
Is it still active?
No detections since 13 Nov 2026, 18:55 UTC. That usually means no flame is visible from space any more, although hotspots may remain. Satellites pass a few times a day and cloud or smoke can hide the fire: a lack of detections is not an official extinction. Each country’s emergency service declares a fire contained or out.
The wind is blowing from the north-east and pushing to the south-west; no sharp shifts are expected until Tue 17, 00:00.
ECMWF IFS 0.25° at the centre of the fire · computed 14 Nov 2026, 02:57 UTC
No sharp changes in the next 72 h
No strong wind shifts and no dry nights. No warnings does not mean the fire will go out: in this weather it can carry on as it is.
Checked, no warning:✓ no wind shifts of more than 60°✓ nights recover humidity (peaks of 77 % or more)✓ no useful rain expected (2.1 mm in 72 h)
Hour by hour, local time
Tap the strip to see each hour
Mean windGusts➤ where it blows toRelative humidityNight (8 pm to 8 am)Rain (mm) · chance in %
Where is it blowing? The next 48 h
geoBoundaries/United States Census Bureau, MAF/TIGER Database (Public Domain)
At this hour
Places the fan reaches
Is it heading my way?
We compare your point with the fan for each hour. Your location never leaves your device.
or tap the map
This is not an official warning. It is a global model forecast with cells of about 25 km, at the centre of the fire: it cannot see valley winds or the winds the fire itself creates. The fan shows where the wind blows, not where the fire will spread. If in doubt, follow what the authorities say.
Forecast: ECMWF IFS 0.25° (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), served by our own Open-Meteo instance; the chance of rain comes from the ECMWF ensemble. Variables: wind and gusts at 10 m, wind at 850 hPa, relative humidity and temperature at 2 m, rain. Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0).
Fire: VIIRS (NASA FIRMS); hotspots from the last 24 h: VIIRS from NASA FIRMS. Boundaries: geoBoundaries/United States Census Bureau, MAF/TIGER Database (Public Domain).
How it is worked out: wind shift = a change of more than 60° in 6 h or less, with at least 15 km/h before and after; no overnight recovery = peak humidity between 8 pm and 8 am stays below 55 %; useful rain = 2 mm or more in 6 h. The fan opens 18° plus however much the wind varies within ±3 h and reaches 25 km beyond the edge of the fire: one model cell, not a rate of spread. Methodology ›
Where it burned
HOTSPOTS BY DAY
4 Nov13 Nov
Play back13 Nov 2026
How it evolved, day by day
4 Nov6 Nov8 Nov12 Nov
Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.
The weather it burned in
27°high
34km/h · peak gust
32%lowest humidity
It had gone one day without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.
Area with fire inside each county, rebuilt from heat detections (about 14 hectares per VIIRS pixel). An estimate until NIFC publishes the official perimeter. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.
The weather day by day
ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · forecast models, provisional until the ERA5 reanalysis arrives
Day
High
Min. humidity
Peak gust
Rain
Danger (FWI)
4 Nov
26.9 °C
56 %
25 km/h
0.8 mm
Low 6
5 Nov
25.8 °C
52 %
15 km/h
0.0 mm
Low 8
6 Nov
25.8 °C
45 %
23 km/h
0.0 mm
Moderate 14
7 Nov
23.8 °C
50 %
25 km/h
0.0 mm
Moderate 14
8 Nov
19.7 °C
42 %
23 km/h
0.0 mm
Moderate 15
9 Nov
23.0 °C
35 %
22 km/h
0.1 mm
Moderate 16
10 Nov
25.2 °C
32 %
17 km/h
0.2 mm
Moderate 16
11 Nov
23.9 °C
59 %
20 km/h
9.1 mm
Very low 1
12 Nov
23.6 °C
36 %
34 km/h
0.0 mm
Low 10
13 Nov
19.6 °C
43 %
27 km/h
0.0 mm
Moderate 12
Its twins: fires that started in the same weather
It started with an FWI of 6.3, a minimum humidity of 56% and 1 day without rain. Fires in the area that started in weather like this since 2016: 13.
FWI at the start6.3
Minimum humidity56 %
Days without rain1
this firechosen twinsrest of the area
Almost identicalSimilar
Outlines of the closest twins
Vernon fire, December 2019
1,743 ha18 daysFWI 5.8Min. humidity 56 %226 km away, in 2019
First rain (1 mm or more) after it ended: 18.2 mm on 29 Dec.
Fires in the area that started in similar weather: 13. With fewer than 15 we give no figures: they would be more noise than signal.
This is a bank of analogues: it shows what usually happens, not what will happen. With fewer than 15 twins we give no figures. How we calculate it
How a twin is chosen
Same area: fires that have already ended, less than 250 km from this one, since 2016.
Same start: we compare the FWI on the first day, the minimum humidity that day and the run of days without rain before it. The slider sets how much they may differ.
Only pages with final weather data (ERA5 reanalysis) calculated in the same way as this fire’s; agricultural and grass burns and pages with data under review are left out.
Fires burning at the same time as this one (a week before or after) are left out: they share the same spell of weather and do not count as a precedent.
They are sorted by similarity, and the outlines of the first five are drawn.
Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.
↔
Before · 28 Oct 2026
After · 13 Nov 2026
Sentinel-2 did not pass over on that day. Try another date, or use false colour, which is daily.
If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.
The smoke
CAMS · Copernicus
On 22 October 2026 the air beside the fire reached 36 µg/m³ of PM2.5. That day averaged 22: 1.4 times the WHO daily guideline (15).
PM2.5 peak36µg/m³
Days over the guideline1day
PM1036µg/m³
Optical depth0.24
WHO 15
12 Oct15 Oct18 Oct21 Oct
GoodFairModeratePoorVery poorExtremely poor
Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.
Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)
Detections table· 63Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.›
⬇ Download CSVTimes in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
According to the heat detections seen by satellite, it burned from 4 November 2026 to 13 November 2026 (10 days between the first and the last detection). There is no perimeter yet to date it.
How much area did it burn?
There is no official perimeter yet: NIFC has not published it. Heat detections rebuild about 812 hectares with fire (8.1 km²).
Which counties burned?
The fire entered 2 counties: Assumption (756 ha, 0.8 %); Ascension (56 ha, 0.1 %).
Is the Assumption fire still active?
No fire detections since 13 Nov 2026, 18:55 UTC. A lack of detections is not an official extinction.
What was the weather like?
During the fire the temperature reached 26.9 °C, humidity dropped to 32 % and gusts hit 34 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 16, class Moderate.
What weather is expected at the fire over the next 72 hours?
The wind is blowing from the north-east and pushing to the south-west; no sharp shifts are expected until Tue 17, 00:00. No strong wind shifts, dry nights or useful rain are expected. Times are local time at the fire. ECMWF IFS forecast (Open-Meteo) computed 14 Nov 2026, 02:57 UTC; this is not an official warning.
Where does this data come from?
From the official burnt perimeter of United States agencies (MTBS / NIFC, public domain), NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of United States. It is not an official report.
Where to verify it
A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.
This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.
⚑Report an errorHow we know this›
No perimeter yet: the area (≈ 812 ha) is estimated by counting VIIRS pixels with fire, about 14 ha each.
Dates of the first and last VIIRS detection of the cluster. 63 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
Weather: ECMWF IFS model, provisional until the ERA5 reanalysis arrives.
The perimeter is official and in the public domain. For past years it comes from MTBS (Monitoring Trends in Burn Severity), run by the U.S. Geological Survey and the USDA Forest Service, which map it on Landsat and Sentinel-2 imagery. For the current and last year it comes from WFIGS at the National Interagency Fire Center (NIFC): incident perimeters mapped by fire crews, aircraft and imagery. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. County boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Public Domain). The area per county is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ slightly from official figures.