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TZ · Tanzania · –

Namtumbo fire, 15 October 2026 Namtumbo, Ulanga

Burning · last detection 4 Nov 2026, 23:16 UTC

The fire started on 15 October 2026 in Namtumbo, Tanzania, and satellites saw it burning for 21 days. Copernicus’s global GWIS system rebuilt a burnt perimeter of 20,851 hectares from heat detections, spread across 2 municipalities.

Number 9 in Tanzania in 2026, of 221.

GWIS near-real-time perimeter, from the layer that changed in August 2025: this fire is not compared with fires from earlier years, because since then the GWIS layer gives more and larger perimeters.

Compare with…

Suggestions: Ulanga · 2021Ulanga · 2018Ulanga · 2016Namtumbo · 2025

Is it still active?

Satellites detected fire on 4 Nov 2026, 23:16 UTC. Everything suggests it is still burning. Satellites pass a few times a day and cloud or smoke can hide the fire: a lack of detections is not an official extinction. Each country’s emergency service declares a fire contained or out.

Wind, humidity and rain for the next 72 h

Burnt area
20,851ha
GWIS perimeter (Copernicus)
Duration
21days
15 Oct 2026 – 4 Nov 2026
Municipalities hit
2
districts
Started on
15 Oct
2026
Heat detections
704
in a single hotspot: 968 MW
Danger at start
12
Moderate · FWI index
Average daily power
347MW
detected power per day, on average

The next 72 hours

The wind is blowing from the north-east and pushing to the south-west; no sharp shifts are expected until Sun 8, 12:00.

ECMWF IFS 0.25° at the centre of the fire · computed 5 Nov 2026, 05:53 UTC

No sharp changes in the next 72 h

No strong wind shifts and no dry nights. No warnings does not mean the fire will go out: in this weather it can carry on as it is.

Checked, no warning: no wind shifts of more than 60° nights recover humidity (peaks of 78 % or more) no useful rain expected (0.0 mm in 72 h)

Hour by hour, local time

Tap the strip to see each hour

Mean wind Gusts where it blows to Relative humidity Night (8 pm to 8 am) Rain (mm) · chance in %

Where is it blowing? The next 48 h

geoBoundaries/Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics / UN OCHA ROSA, OCHA ROSA (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO))

At this hour

Places the fan reaches

    Is it heading my way?

    We compare your point with the fan for each hour. Your location never leaves your device.

    or tap the map

    This is not an official warning. It is a global model forecast with cells of about 25 km, at the centre of the fire: it cannot see valley winds or the winds the fire itself creates. The fan shows where the wind blows, not where the fire will spread. If in doubt, follow what the authorities say.

    Emergencies · Tanzania 112 Emergency number and official warnings

    Forecast: ECMWF IFS 0.25° (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts), served by our own Open-Meteo instance; the chance of rain comes from the ECMWF ensemble. Variables: wind and gusts at 10 m, wind at 850 hPa, relative humidity and temperature at 2 m, rain. Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0).

    Fire: GWIS / Copernicus (reconstructed from VIIRS) (CC BY 4.0); hotspots from the last 24 h: VIIRS from NASA FIRMS. Boundaries: geoBoundaries/Tanzania National Bureau of Statistics / UN OCHA ROSA, OCHA ROSA (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)).

    How it is worked out: wind shift = a change of more than 60° in 6 h or less, with at least 15 km/h before and after; no overnight recovery = peak humidity between 8 pm and 8 am stays below 55 %; useful rain = 2 mm or more in 6 h. The fan opens 18° plus however much the wind varies within ±3 h and reaches 25 km beyond the edge of the fire: one model cell, not a rate of spread. Methodology

    Where it burned

    HOTSPOTS BY DAY 15 Oct4 Nov
    4 Nov 2026

    How it evolved, day by day

    15 Oct 2026 · 8 MW · 4 16 Oct 2026 · 206 MW · 49 17 Oct 2026 · 25 MW · 10 18 Oct 2026 · 24 MW · 26 19 Oct 2026 · 385 MW · 40 20 Oct 2026 · 182 MW · 31 21 Oct 2026 · 150 MW · 30 22 Oct 2026 · 462 MW · 65 23 Oct 2026 · 700 MW · 45 24 Oct 2026 · 202 MW · 36 25 Oct 2026 · 11 MW · 3 26 Oct 2026 · 2,925 MW · 18 27 Oct 2026 · 270 MW · 83 28 Oct 2026 · 904 MW · 112 29 Oct 2026 · 581 MW · 100 30 Oct 2026 · 7 MW · 6 31 Oct 2026 · 3 MW · 2 1 Nov 2026 · 55 MW · 4 2 Nov 2026 · 110 MW · 17 3 Nov 2026 · 20 MW · 11 4 Nov 2026 · 59 MW · 12
    15 Oct 20 Oct 26 Oct 30 Oct 4 Nov

    Fire radiative power detected each day, in megawatts, and number of hotspots. The magenta bar marks the peak day.

    The weather it burned in

    36°high
    40km/h · peak gust
    23%lowest humidity

    It had gone 0 days without rain (1 mm or more) when it started.

    This area had burned before

    9% of the perimeter overlaps earlier fires recorded since 2016: 377 ha in 2017, 453 ha in 2021, 1,160 ha in 2022.

    How big is it?

    10 km
    It burned the equivalent of 13% of the area of London (209 km² against 1,583 km²).

    London boundary: geoBoundaries · Office for National Statistics (Open Government Licence v3.0).

    This compares size, not location: both shapes are at the same scale, north up, centred on each other.

    What happened to each town

    1. Namtumbo where it started
      17,979 ha reached on 15 Oct
      0.8 %
    2. Ulanga
      6,336 ha reached on 19 Oct
      0.3 %

    Burnt area inside each municipality, from crossing the GWIS perimeter with administrative boundaries. The distance runs from the point marking the centre of each area to the nearest fire: staying a kilometre away does not mean it reached the houses.

    People and buildings inside the perimeter

    GHSL 2025
    Built-up area0.12 ha
    Residents≈ 20

    Inside the perimeter there were about 0.12 hectares of built-up land and about 20 residents (GHSL 2025, satellite-based estimate).

    This is an estimate on 100 m cells, made from satellite imagery and census data: it does not mean that homes burned or that anyone was harmed. The perimeter also contains land that never burned. The GHSL 2025 epoch is a projection made from 2020 and earlier data.

    Source: Global Human Settlement Layer (GHS-BUILT-S and GHS-POP R2023A), European Commission Joint Research Centre (JRC), © European Union, CC BY 4.0. Sum inside the perimeter computed by WorldFires. human-settlement.emergency.copernicus.eu

    The weather day by day

    ECMWF ERA5 reanalysis at the fire location, the standard reference for past weather, and the Canadian Fire Weather Index (the same system Copernicus uses), computed by WorldFires from that data. Days after the fire run until the first rain.

    Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · forecast models, provisional until the ERA5 reanalysis arrives

    Day High Min. humidity Peak gust Rain Danger (FWI)
    15 Oct 33.2 °C 30 % 31 km/h 0.8 mm Moderate 12
    16 Oct 33.0 °C 30 % 36 km/h 0.3 mm High 22
    17 Oct 32.0 °C 37 % 40 km/h 1.3 mm High 22
    18 Oct 31.0 °C 40 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm High 27
    19 Oct 31.5 °C 42 % 28 km/h 0.2 mm High 24
    20 Oct 33.4 °C 36 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm High 28
    21 Oct 34.1 °C 33 % 32 km/h 0.1 mm High 30
    22 Oct 36.2 °C 27 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
    23 Oct 36.2 °C 24 % 29 km/h 0.0 mm High 32
    24 Oct 36.1 °C 23 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm High 34
    25 Oct 35.8 °C 23 % 32 km/h 0.2 mm Very high 42
    26 Oct 35.7 °C 28 % 33 km/h 0.5 mm Very high 40
    27 Oct 34.6 °C 28 % 30 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 40
    28 Oct 35.3 °C 27 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm Very high 39
    29 Oct 36.2 °C 25 % 28 km/h 0.0 mm High 36
    30 Oct 34.8 °C 32 % 30 km/h 0.8 mm High 38
    31 Oct 34.1 °C 36 % 25 km/h 1.5 mm High 25
    1 Nov 33.5 °C 37 % 31 km/h 0.2 mm High 29
    2 Nov 35.0 °C 33 % 28 km/h 0.1 mm High 28
    3 Nov 34.8 °C 36 % 28 km/h 0.2 mm High 30
    4 Nov 34.7 °C 31 % 28 km/h 0.1 mm High 29
    5 Nov after 35.0 °C 31 % 29 km/h 0.2 mm High 34

    Before and after, from space

    Drag the line to compare the same ground before the fire and after it.

    Before · 8 Oct 2026
    After · 4 Nov 2026

    If the day is cloudy, change the date: each satellite passes once a day. In false colour the burnt ground looks brown or red.

    The smoke

    CAMS · Copernicus

    On 18 October 2026 the air beside the fire reached 17 µg/m³ of PM2.5, but no daily average passed the WHO guideline (15).

    PM2.5 peak17 µg/m³
    Days over the guideline0 days
    PM1022 µg/m³
    Optical depth0.42
    14 Oct16 Oct18 Oct20 Oct
    Good Fair Moderate Poor Very poor Extremely poor

    Particles from the Copernicus CAMS model at the centre of the perimeter; these are not measurements in each town. The pale bar is the worst hour, the solid one the daily average.

    Open-Meteo.com (CC BY 4.0) · Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS)

    Detections table · 704Every satellite heat detection, one by one, with time, satellite, power and coordinates.
    ⬇ Download CSV Times in UTC. Each detection is a 375 m pixel: a large fire yields hundreds per pass.
    Date and timeSatelliteFRP (MW)LatLon

    Other fires nearby

    All fires in Tanzania

    Frequently asked questions

    How long did the Namtumbo fire last?
    According to the heat detections seen by satellite inside the perimeter, it burned from 15 October 2026 to 4 November 2026 (21 days). The perimeter dates it from 16 October 2026 to 4 November 2026.
    How much area did it burn?
    The perimeter GWIS (Copernicus) rebuilt from heat detections is 20,851 hectares (208.5 km²). It is an estimate: official national figures may differ.
    Which municipalities burned?
    The fire entered 2 municipalities: Namtumbo (17,979 ha, 0.8 %); Ulanga (6,336 ha, 0.3 %).
    Is the Namtumbo fire still active?
    Yes: satellites detected fire on 4 Nov 2026, 23:16 UTC. Check the emergency service for the official status.
    What was the weather like?
    During the fire the temperature reached 36.2 °C, humidity dropped to 23 % and gusts hit 40 km/h. The fire danger index (FWI) reached 42, class Very high.
    What weather is expected at the fire over the next 72 hours?
    The wind is blowing from the north-east and pushing to the south-west; no sharp shifts are expected until Sun 8, 12:00. No strong wind shifts, dry nights or useful rain are expected. Times are local time at the fire. ECMWF IFS forecast (Open-Meteo) computed 5 Nov 2026, 05:53 UTC; this is not an official warning.
    Where does this data come from?
    From the GWIS (Copernicus) burnt perimeter, NASA FIRMS VIIRS hotspots and the administrative boundaries of Tanzania (geoBoundaries). It is not an official report.

    Where to verify it

    A satellite detection is not an official report. Final figures and the fire’s status are published by each country’s emergency service.

    Emergency number: 112 · Emergency number and official warnings

    Satellite cross-check

    History of this page · 7 Changes in area, dates, name, official record or merged pages, compared every night since 24 October 2026.
    1. Area: 22,550 → 23,811 ha.
    2. Area: 12,559 → 22,550 ha.
    3. The page “Namtumbo, 17 October 2026” has been merged into this one: it was the same fire.
    4. Area: 8,778 → 12,559 ha.
    5. Start date: 16 October 2026 → 15 October 2026.
    6. Area: 8,605 → 8,778 ha.
    7. Area: 8,289 → 8,605 ha.

    RSS Changes to this page With cross-checks and a citable version

    Does something look wrong on this page?

    This page is built from satellite data and official records, and it sometimes gets things wrong: the wrong dates, the wrong town, two fires merged into one, or something that was not a wildfire at all. If you know this fire first-hand (you live nearby, saw it, fought it or reported on it), tell us what really happened and we will check it.

    Report an error
    What do you think is wrong?

    We will only use your email to reply about this report. Privacy. This is not an emergency service: if there is a fire now, call 112.

    How we know this
    • Perimeter: GWIS (Copernicus), rebuilt from heat detections rather than mapped on imagery; 4 polygons grouped in this page.
    • Dates adjusted with the VIIRS detections inside the perimeter, which said 16 October 2026 to 4 November 2026. 704 Suomi-NPP VIIRS detections on those dates.
    • We have not matched this page with any official record.
    • Weather: ECMWF IFS model, provisional until the ERA5 reanalysis arrives.
    • Built-up area and population come from the JRC Global Human Settlement Layer (epoch 2025, 100 m cells), summed inside the perimeter: an estimate of what was there, not a damage count.

    How we build fire pages: methodology

    Where this data comes from

    The perimeter comes from the Copernicus Global Wildfire Information System (GWIS), which rebuilds it from MODIS and VIIRS heat detections and publishes it under CC BY 4.0. It is not measured on imagery as in Europe, so it is an estimate. Heat detections come from the VIIRS sensors aboard Suomi-NPP and NOAA-20, distributed by NASA FIRMS at 375 m resolution. Municipal boundaries come from geoBoundaries ADM2 (Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Intergovernmental Organisations (CC BY 3.0 IGO)). The area per municipality is computed by WorldFires by crossing the perimeter with those boundaries, so it may differ from each country’s official figure.